J. Göllner, J. Klerx, K. Mak:
"Knowledge Development and Horizon Scanning for Strategic Longterm Planning in Cyber Security";
angenommen für Security and Defence Quarterly
Existing foresights studies produce expectations about mid-term and long-term expectations about the future. In particular in the cyber domain, these expectations tend to change accidently, caused by disruptive events. For reliable long-term strategic planning it is necessary to understand the dynamics of these changes. Our horizon scanning method is developed to address social needs, as well as scientific capabilities and technical solutions and will produce reliable knowledge about analyzing weak signals for threats, disruptive events and long-term trends. Transparent, public knowledge about long-term trends is very important for the efficiency of each strategic long term planning activity in all supply chain networks and in relation to domain cyber space. In the last decades, the ICT infrastructure did become ubiquitous for all supply chain networks, for all critical infrastructures and in particular for the knowledge management in these domains. Each stakeholder has their own expectations about future trends and behaves in accordance to these expectations. Misleading expectations can cause flawed investments and political strategies. This publication will present a method for semi-automatic knowledge creation and sharing to increase the knowledge about future developments and future needs in the system. This knowledge can support long term capability planning, research agenda setting, innovation management and strategic long term planning in cyber security. However it is in the core of foresight not to predict the future of cyber security, but to build it. Thus knowledge development and horizon scanning are support actions for strategic planning activities.
Knowledge development, Z-Model, multi-layer multiple vector model, horizon scanning, foresight, strategic long term planning, research agenda setting, critical infrastructure, supply chain network protection, cyber security, documentation, information log
Erstellt aus der Publikationsdatenbank des AIT Austrian Institute of Technology.