C Aubrecht, K. Steinnocher, M. Köstl, J. Züger, W. Loibl:
"Long-term spatio-temporal social vulnerability variation considering health-related climate change parameters particulary affecting elderly";
Natural Hazards, 68 (2013), 3; S. 1371 - 1384.

For assessing the social dimension of vulnerability, population exposure
mapping is usually considered the essential starting point. Integration of social structure
then further differentiates situation-specific vulnerability patterns on a local scale. Census
data available in heterogeneous spatial reference units are still considered the standard
information input for assessing potentially affected people, for example, in case of an
emergency. There is a strong demand for population data in homogeneous spatial units that
are independent from administrative areas. Raster representations meet this demand but are
not yet available for all European countries. In this paper, we present an approach of spatial
disaggregation of population data for a European transect referring to current population
statistics and anticipated future prospects. Recently published data providing the degree of
soil sealing are applied as basic proxy for population density in the spatial disaggregation
model. In order to assess future patterns of climate change-related vulnerability, results of a
European regional climate model are considered for projecting the situation in the 2030s.
``Heat wave frequency´´ is accounted for as climate variable featuring conditions regarded
as especially strenuous for elderly or physically weak persons. Integrated analysis of the
population and climate prospects enables identification of hot spots in the European
transect examined, that is, regions of particularly demanding projected climatic patterns as
well as high population density and case-specific vulnerable structure (elderly people).
Integrated and consistent spatial analyses on European scale are essential for decision
support in the context of climate change impact mitigation as well as for risk communication
and future safety and security considerations.

Social vulnerability, Population exposure, Spatial disaggregation, Climate prospects, Regional climate model, Heat wave

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