N. Móricz, E. Asztovits, B. Gálos, I. Berki, A. Eredics, W. Loibl:
"Modelling the Potential Distribution of Three Climate Zonal Tree Species for Present and Future Climate in Hungary";
Acta Silvatica & Lingaria Hungaria, Vol. 9 (2014), 11 S.

The potential distribution and composition rate of beech, sessile oak and Turkey oak were
investigated for present and future climates (2036-2065 and 2071-2100) in Hungary. Membership
functions were defined using the current composition rate (percentage of cover in forest compartments) of
the tree species and the long-term climate expressed by the Ellenberg quotient to model the present
and future tree species distribution and composition rate. The simulation results using the regional
climate model REMO showed significant decline of beech and sessile oak in Hungary during the 21st
century. By the middle of the century only about 35% of the present beech and 75% of the sessile oak
stands will remain above their current potential distribution limit. By the end of the century beech
forests may almost disappear from Hungary and sessile oak will also be found only along the
Southwest border and in higher mountain regions. On the contrary the present occurrences of Turkey
oak will be almost entirely preserved during the century however its distribution area will shift to the
current sessile oak habitats

potential tree species distribution / composition rate / beech / sessile oak / Turkey oak

Erstellt aus der Publikationsdatenbank des AIT Austrian Institute of Technology.