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Beiträge in Tagungsbänden:

C Aubrecht, K. Steinnocher, H. Humer, H. Huber:
"DynaPop-X: A population dynamics model applied to spatio-temporal exposure assessment - Implementation aspects from the CRISMA project";
in: "EGU (European Geosciences Union) General Assembly 2014. Geophysical Research Abstracts", herausgegeben von: EGU (European Geosciences Union); Eigenverlag, Vienna, 2014, Paper-Nr. 1932, Geophysical Research Abstracts Vol. 16.



Kurzfassung:
In the context of proactive disaster risk as well as immediate situational crisis management knowledge of
locational social aspects in terms of spatio-temporal population distribution dynamics is considered among the
most important factors for disaster impact minimization (Aubrecht et al., 2013a). This applies to both the pre-event
stage for designing appropriate preparedness measures and to acute crisis situations when an event chain actually
unfolds for efficient situation-aware response.
The presented DynaPop population dynamics model is developed at the interface of those interlinked crisis stages
and aims at providing basic input for social impact evaluation and decision support in crisis management. The
model provides the starting point for assessing population exposure dynamics - thus here labeled as DynaPop-X
- which can either be applied in a sense of illustrating the changing locations and numbers of affected people at
different stages during an event or as ex-ante estimations of probable and maximum expected clusters of affected
population (Aubrecht et al., 2013b; Freire & Aubrecht, 2012).
DynaPop is implemented via a gridded spatial disaggregation approach and integrates previous efforts on
spatio-temporal modeling that account for various aspects of population dynamics such as human mobility and
activity patterns that are particularly relevant in picturing the highly dynamic daytime situation (Ahola et al.,
2007; Bhaduri, 2008; Cockings et al., 2010). We will present ongoing developments particularly focusing on the
implementation logic of the model using the emikat software tool, a data management system initially designed
for inventorying and analysis of spatially resolved regional air pollutant emission scenarios.
This study was performed in the framework of the EU CRISMA project. CRISMA is funded from the European
Community´s Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant agreement no. 284552.

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