[Zurück]


Buchbeiträge:

M. König, W. Loibl, W. Haas, L. Kranzl:
"Shared-Socio-Economic Pathways";
in: "Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts: Development of a Cross-Sectoral Framework and Results for Austria", Springer International Publishing, Switzerland, 2015, ISBN: 978-3-319-12457-5, S. 75 - 101.



Kurzfassung:
Socio-economic pathways determine future climate impacts and costs
thereof. Pragmatically, we have referred to a global reference socio-economic
pathway (represented by SSP2 in the IPCC process) and derived figures for the
core economic, demographic, land-use and (qualitatively) technological development
in Austria, which again frame the sectoral development assumptions necessary
to follow a scenario-based cost assessment approach.
In principal, trend projections and existing studies have been used to describe a
single country, here applied for Austria, in 2030/2050 that is growing slowly in
terms of population (0.27 % p.a.) and medium in terms of GDP (1.65 % p.a.) and in
which forests, meadows and settlements expand in the north-east-south crescent-
at the cost of arable land, within which further intensification will take place. Policy
assumptions as well as technological change have been set to a medium path, at
which risk zoning put forward, the EU integration `muddles through´ and no
technological wonders are taken into account. A reference scenario might be
regarded as least uncertain-which is not true-but we might expect more volatile
developments to equilibrate over some decades.
The Austria we expose to climate change by 2050 is significantly different from
nowadays: Its population is older and its public and private infrastructure density is
higher-at least two factors that might influence future climate costs of inaction.

Erstellt aus der Publikationsdatenbank des AIT Austrian Institute of Technology.