G. Pasaoglu, N. Pardo-Garcia, G. Zubi:
"A multi-criteria and multi-expert decision aid approach to evaluate the future Turkish power plant portfolio";
Energy Policy, 119 (2018), S. 654 - 665.

The study presents recent developments in the Turkish power market and introduces an Analytic Hierarchy
Process model to evaluate and compare the relative overall attractiveness of power plant options for Turkey. The
developed model incorporates technical characteristics, resource availability, socio-economic, environmental,
cost, political, legal and organisational aspects, for evaluating and prioritising power plant types (biomass, coal,
geothermal, hydro, natural gas, nuclear, petroleum, solar and wind). The study incorporates perspectives of
different experts that represent various stakeholders of the Turkish power sector. The study reveals that supply
reliability, investment costs and contribution to national economy are perceived as most important factors,
whereas waste disposal and decommissioning costs are perceived as least important factors. Considering the
overall weights, the most attractive power plant types for the Turkish power market are coal, hydro and natural
gas power plants. The study indicates that Turkey should drastically decrease the installed capacity share of
traditionally dominant power plants (to 58% from 89% in 2016) and fossil fuel power plants (to 40% from 56%
in 2016), and increase the share of renewable power plants (to 52% from 44% in 2016), indigenous resource
based power plants (to 67% from 56% in 2016) and nuclear power plants.

Analytic hierarchy process, Multi criteria decision making, Electricity generation, Renewable energy

Erstellt aus der Publikationsdatenbank des AIT Austrian Institute of Technology.